Orange County continues to see an increase in daily COVID-19 cases, as the county’s hospitalization rate also continues to climb. On Friday, July 30, the Orange County Health Agency reported 593 new COVID-19 cases, marking the second consecutive day the county reported more than 500 new cases, a first since February, long before the state lifted capacity restrictions on businesses.

With more than 1,100 new COVID-19 cases reported in Orange County between Thursday, July 29 and Friday, July 30, experts warn the delta variant has become the most continuous strain Southern California has seen. Yet, while the increase in daily cases may be alarming, what is more troubling to experts, like UC Irvine’s Andrew Noymer, are the “sustained increases” in the county’s COVID-19 hospitalization rates.

“The 500 cases doesn’t perturb me, as raw case numbers can be influenced by testing (ex. back to school tests for athletes pre-season),” Noymer wrote in a text message to Irvine Weekly. “What does worry me — a lot — is the sustained increases in hospitalizations as well as the percentage of tests that are coming back positive; over 6% in the latest batch.”

Countywide, the county health agency dashboard indicates 252 people are currently hospitalized with COVID-19, with 59 of that total in the intensive care unit. It should be noted that COVID-19 hospitalizations increased by double digits four different times between July 23 and July 30.

In terms of COVID-19 hospitalization demographics, the Orange County Health Agency has introduced a graph that tracks the 7-day case rate of hospitalization per 100,000 by vaccination status. Currently, the case rate for hospitalization within individuals not fully vaccinated is 24.6, with fully vaccinated at 4.9 per 100,000.

COVID-19 hospitalization In Irvine, the city reported 212 new cases between Tuesday, July 20 and July 27. Irvine’s weekly increase of 53 new COVID-19 cases was the highest weekly increase reported in the city since switching to weekly updates on May 3.

As California moves to adopt the Centers for Disease Control’s new guidance regarding the use of face masks indoors – regardless of vaccination status – the agency made alternative headlines in the Washington Post and the New York Times, as information found on an internal CDC presentation slide indicated the COVID-19 delta variant, the now dominant variant in Orange County, was as transmissible as chickenpox and ebola.

Noymer said that experts have alluded to the increased transmission of the delta variant for some time. Additionally, Irvine Mayor Farrah Khan pointed out that even the vaccinated individuals were still at risk for contracting the virus.

“We’ve known for six weeks or so that Delta is quite contagious, that information comparing it to varicella infection (ie, chickenpox) is causing a stir because it comes from a leaked CDC slide deck,” Noymer wrote in text on Friday, July 30. “Contagiousness is hard to quantify; these comparisons come from mathematical models; I don’t put a lot of stock in it.”

Noymer added that “quantifying contagiousness is a tricky business,” but that he is currently using hospitalizations as a barometer for the current COVID-19 landscape.

“Hospitalizations matter. End of story. What is absolutely true, and you can take this to the bank, is that qualitatively, Delta is much more spread than Alpha,” he wrote. “‘Cases’ could be a bunch of asymptomatic 16-year-olds reporting for cross-country practice, and percentage positive matters, >6% of tests coming back positive shows that we are not — as some people maintain — ‘testing too many people.'”

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