With COVID-19 hospitalizations rising in Orange County, the Orange County Health Agency urged residents on Friday, July 16, to protect themselves against the virus, as experts warn Southern California could be on the verge of a summer spike.

Andrew Noymer, an epidemiologist and professor at UC Irvine, emphasized the importance of reporting daily COVID-19 totals, as the HCA shifted from daily reports to weekly on July 6.

“For the record, I’d like to say O.C. Health needs to start issuing numbers on the daily. Hospitalizations are over 100 again — we’ll find out tomorrow what the current hospitalizations are,” Noymer said by phone on Monday, July 19. “We’re seeing a reversal of fortune, but it’s being driven principally by two things.”

Noymer attributed the current summer spike to two factors — reopening and the COVID-19 delta variant. However, Noymer added that while the uptick in cases was “predictable” in the reopening of the state’s economy, what is more troubling is the emergence of the COVID-19 Delta variant — among the vaccinated and unvaccinated.

“You can get this thing twice,” he said. “Boris Johnson, Prime Minister of the United Kingdom, currently has COVID-19, again. “This Delta variant is much more transmissible, and that means herd immunity – even if it’s achievable – is higher.”

While the concept of herd immunity became a focal point in the early days of the pandemic, Noymer added that the concept is more complicated than it appears, pointing out that there is no herd immunity for complex viruses that have the ability to evade treatment, like the influenza virus.

“Herd immunity doesn’t mean COVID vanishes, it just means you don’t have sustained uncontrolled chains of transmission, but it’s still out there at the margins,” he said. “COVID-19 seems to be evolving rapidly – we have all these strains – and the flu has strains, so the flu evades herd immunity by mutating. The point is the flu has not vanished – and neither will COVID.”

In California, the state department of public health’s COVID-19 dashboard shows 65 COVID-19 related deaths on July 15, 25 deaths on July 16, and 51 deaths on July 18. There were no deaths listed on July 17.

As of July 18, the CDPH Dashboard showed the state’s 7-day positivity rate at 4.1%, which is a 1.1% increase from a week prior.

On Monday, July 19, the CDPH reported 14,097 new COVID-19 cases, from across the state a day prior.

While Orange County has not issued a mask mandate, Los Angeles County and other states have reimplemented indoor mask mandates.

While there is no timetable on how long mask mandates will or will not be in effect, Noymer continued to reiterate the need for vaccination against COVID-19 to avoid worsening this current summer spike.

“Vaccination still needs to be at the core of our efforts, and that arguing about masking is really embroidery around the edges,” Noymer said.

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