Despite dramatic declines in daily COVID-19 cases and hospitalizations in Orange County, the county’s anticipated move into the state’s Red Tier is not likely to happen this week, as the county failed to meet consecutive weeks of COVID-19 case rate requirements. 

In a text with Irvine Weekly, Irvine Mayor Farrah Khan said there has been some miscommunication about the county moving into the state’s Red Tier as soon as Tuesday, March 9. Khan does not anticipate the county being eligible to do so until March 16. 

“We are still in the Purple Tier. There has been some miscommunication that we will be moving into the Red Tier next week, this is not true,” Khan wrote in a text to Irvine Weekly.

After her weekly call with Orange County Health Officer Dr. Clayton Chau, on Friday, March 5, Khan said the county would remain in the Purple Tier, and will need to maintain its current case rate metrics for another week in order to satisfy the state’s two-week requirement. 

In terms of the state’s requirements, the California Department of Public Health has established a two-week duration in which the county must maintain case rate metric criteria for the less restrictive tier it will advance to – Red Tier metrics in Orange County’s case – prior to moving tiers. 

“A county must meet criteria for the next less restrictive tier for both measures for the prior two consecutive weeks in order to progress to the next tier,” according to California’s Blueprint for a Safer Economy.

On Monday, March 8, the county’s case rate 7.6% with a test positivity rate of 3.9%, and a 5% health equity quartile positivity rate. In order to move into the Red Tier, Orange County must maintain an adjusted case rate between 4-7 percent, a test positivity rate between 5-8 percent, along with a health equity quartile between 5-8 percent. 

Portions of O.C.’s COVID-19 metrics are currently in line with Red Tier requirements, but last week, on Tuesday, March 1, the county did not meet case-rate requirements in one of three categories. 

Khan added that the county’s tier status is re-evaluated every Tuesday, and is confident that Chau will present these findings during his COVID-19 update to the Board of Supervisors on Tuesday, March 9. 

“On Tuesday, [March 9] we will have maintained our numbers for the Red Tier for one week. By Monday, March 16, if we maintain these numbers, we will have met our second week requirement towards the Red Tier,” Khan wrote in a text to Irvine Weekly. “If all goes well, O.C. will be moved into the Red Tier by March 17. Every Tuesday, the state will upload their tier announcements and on the following Wednesday the new tier will take effect.”

Orange County’s test positivity and health equity meet Red and Orange Tier criteria, but O.C.’s case rate (7.6%) is still within the Purple Tier threshold.  

Khan added that she is familiar with the fluidity of the situation, and even after speaking with Chau, who she appointed to Irvine’s COVID-19 Task Force, understands that things could change.  

While Khan seems confident the county will need to wait to advance, other leaders in Orange County are already looking at moving into the Orange Tier.

On March 7, NBC Los Angeles spoke to Orange County Supervisor Lisa Bartlett, who said the county is seeing drastic improvements.

“Our numbers continue to improve – we could actually be in the Orange Tier in the not-too-distant future,” Bartlett said.

While numbers may be improving, the county still must meet requirements for March 17. However, prior to advancing tiers, a county must remain in a tier for at least three weeks, minimum, per CDPH requirements.

With these state-mandated requirements in mind, and the hope that case rates maintain a downward trajectory, Orange County would not be eligible to move into the Orange Tier until April 7, at the earliest.

“With the way things are going, you can never be 100 percent certain,” Khan wrote through text on Monday, March 8.

Once Orange County moves into the Red Tier, restaurants could return to indoor dining, with reduced capacity. Fitness centers could also return to indoor services.

On Monday, March 8, Orange County Health Agency reported 163 new COVID-19 cases with 26 COVID-19 deaths. While the number of deaths may be high, the website indicated that the state database has reported technical issues. 

Although the county may not get a pass to move into the Red Tier, there is positive news in terms of hospitalizations, which have greatly decreased since the winter surge.  

For the first time since November, Orange County COVID-19 hospitalizations have fallen below 300 patients, with 288 total hospitalized. Of those hospitalized, 84 are currently in the county’s intensive care unit. 

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