Reevaluation of AGBA-Triller Merger: Comprehensive Valuation Insights. Is AGBA going to $20 dollars?

Introduction The strategic merger between Triller and AGBA, initially valued at approximately $4 billion, appears significantly undervalued when dissecting the associated assets and strategic relationships. This analysis provides a more detailed exploration of the combined entity’s intrinsic value, influenced by the extensive business networks of Richard Tsai and Fubon Financial, and proposes that the adjusted stock price for AGBA should be closer to $20.

Triller’s Diverse Digital Ecosystem Triller has evolved significantly, and its component entities provide a strong basis for valuation reassessment:

  1. Triller.TV’s Broadening Horizons
    • As a leader in digital broadcasting, particularly in combat sports, Triller.TV has potential standalone valuation of approximately $2 billion, mirroring competitors with similar market caps like Rumble which publicly has been trading between 1.8billion and 5 billion with similar user base and financials.
  2. Bare Knuckle Fighting Championship (BKFC)
    • With its explosive popularity and high-profile partnerships, BKFC could be valued at or above $1 billion, considering its viewership often rivals that of the UFC. BKFC is unquestionably the fastest growing combat sport in the world, and has far exceeded the PFL which most recently announced a purported $ 1billion valuation.
  3. Amplify.AI’s Industry Impact
    • Handling over 500 million interactions quarterly, Amplify.AI is positioned alongside firms valued between $1 and $10 billion, making it a critical component of Triller’s valuation. Amplify’s AI has been around since 2016 and embedded into virtually every major social media platform including: Facebook, Instagram, Snapchat, Youtube and many others and empowers over 500 million interactions between brands and users quarterly for some of the worlds most recognized brands.
  4. Influencer Marketing: Julius and Fangage
    • Julius connects 25,000 brands with 2.2 million influencers, and alongside Fangage, this sector significantly enhances Triller’s valuation, given the booming influencer marketing industry.

Richard Tsai’s Influence and Fubon Financial’s Extensive Portfolio Richard Tsai, through his leadership roles in Fubon Financial and related entities, brings substantial financial and strategic resources. Filings show that ABGA is essentially largely controlled by Tsai and affiliates, one of the most prolific businessmen in the world. Holdings include:

  • Fubon Financial Holdings
    • One of Asia’s largest financial services companies, with extensive holdings in insurance and banking sectors. It reported assets under management exceeding $200 billion in recent filings, underscoring its financial strength.
  • Taiwan Mobile and Taiwan Telecom
    • These companies collectively serve millions of users, with Taiwan Mobile reporting over 7 million subscribers and significant annual revenues exceeding several billion dollars.
  • E-Commerce Dominance MOMO
    • Perhaps one of the most hidden and important parts of this partnership is The Tsai family’s holding and control of NASDAQ traded Ecommerce giant MOMO. MOMO currently has a 102 Billion (Taiwan) dollar market cap,  and has over 105 million Monthly Active Users (“MAU”) and dominates the regional market with millions of active users and annual transaction volumes in the billions. Although speculating, it seems a MOMO and Triller JV could be a scenario where Triller could transition up to an additional 105 million active users and there is a tremendous overlap and synergies  between these two companies.

Additional Strategic Assets and Market Positioning Triller’s shareholder base includes a substantial portion of the world’s top 100 TikTok influencers, enhancing its brand value and market reach. This unique positioning leverages direct access to a vast audience, crucial for digital content platforms.

Valuation Synthesis: The Sum of Parts Analysis An expanded valuation consideration includes:

  • Triller.TV: ~$2 billion
  • BKFC: ~$1 billion (or more)
  • Amplify.AI: $1 to $10 billion (considering the broad range due to the growth potential in AI interactions)
  • Influencer Marketing Platforms (Julius and Fangage): Potentially over $1 billion, given the scale of connections and the growth trajectory of influencer marketing.
  • Triller App (1 Billion—$40 Billion (based on TikTok Ban)) and Momo JV.

This comprehensive analysis suggests that the sum of the parts associated with the Triller-AGBA merger far exceeds the initial $4 billion valuation. The strategic assets held by Triller, combined with the financial and business influence of Richard Tsai and Fubon Financial, justify a revised stock price of around $20 for AGBA. This merger is not only strategically advantageous but also poised for significant growth, leveraging synergies across digital content, influencer marketing, AI technology, and telecom sectors.

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