On the evening of Sunday, Dec. 6, Orange County, and the majority of California, was placed on a state-mandated three-week regional stay-at-home order due to the record number of rising COVID-19 cases impacting intensive care unit (ICU) capacity, as the virus continued to proliferate across the nation.

During the first week of December, Orange County reported 9,499 new COVID-19 cases, the county’s highest number of weekly cases since the pandemic began and nearly double the number of weekly cases reported during the July peak. 

While state health official had predicted this rise, the three-week order will expire on Dec. 27, affecting not only Orange County, but Los Angeles, Riverside, San Diego, Imperial, Inyo, Mono, San Bernardino, San Luis Obispo, Santa Barbara and Ventura counties as well.

On Wednesday, Dec. 9, Orange County Health Care Agency reported 2,613 new COVID-19 cases, with zero deaths. The virus continued to increase in California, on Wednesday, the state reported 30,851 new COVID-19 cases. 

Wednesday also marked the county’s highest daily total for positive COVID-19 cases, bringing Orange County’s cumulative total to 93,126 confirmed COVID-19 cases, and with 1,633 deaths. 

In terms of hospitalizations, Orange County is currently treating 974 COVID-19 patients, with 239 in the ICU, according to the Orange County Health Agency. 

In an interview with Irvine Weekly, Andrew Noymer, Associate Professor, Population Health and Disease Prevention at University of California, Irvine, said there are still many unknowns about this surging virus, but that we are entering a “crisis stage,” and the public should be prepared for “severe” results.   

On Dec. 3, Noymer posted a radial plot graph showing the air travel over Thanksgiving weekend. He pointed to the fact it was the first time the Transportation Security Administration recorded 1 million air travelers since mid-March, around the time the pandemic began. 

Noymer added that while he applauds the fact that air travel was down in comparison to last year, there should be much less, given the impact the virus. 

“The universe is not some experiment that we can rerun, changing events — so we don’t know how much of this is due to Thanksgiving and how much of it is due to it just increasing anyway,” Noymer explained to Irvine Weekly. “Whatever it is — there was too much travel during Thanksgiving, given the circumstances.” 

Per California Gov. Gavin Newsom’s lock-down order, some of the sectors that need to close completely are hair salons, barbershops, personal care services, museums, zoos and aquariums. This is a reversal from the previous stay-at-home order, which allowed those businesses to be partially open with specific COVID-19 guidelines in place. 

“Regions where the ICU capacity is falling below 15 percent, we are mandating a stay-at-home order for three weeks,” Newsom said during a press conference on Thursday, Dec. 3.

The order also restricts non-essential travel statewide. Primarily, the governor explained, the purpose of the regional stay at home order is “fundamentally predicated on the need to stop gathering with people outside of your household.”

The order also asks that the Southern California region shut down bars, breweries and indoor movie theaters — however, in Orange County, movie theaters are allowed to operate outdoors, in a drive-in format. 

The order will also force the closure of cardrooms, amusement parks, non-essential travel and sporting events with an audience, although those were already restricted under the county’s previous order. Schools will also remain open will waivers. Retail businesses can also remain open at 20 percent of maximum capacity.

California’s restaurant industry also faces restrictions, as the regional stay-at-home order calls for the closure of indoor and outdoor dining across the state to curb the spread of the virus.

However, there has been major resistance to the shutdown from some Orange County restaurant owners. 

Chef Andrew Gruel, owner of the Huntington Beach-based Slapfish, which has several locations across the nation, including one in Irvine, has become very outspoken on social media, and made appearances on several news outlets, citing the lack of science behind the governor’s orders.

“I didn’t think there would be so much attention drawn to my emotional rant, but I mean, it’s been nuts,” Gruel said in a phone interview with Irvine Weekly. “Our business is up 300 percent, we’ve got so many people coming to the restaurant — but also trying to figure out what’s happening with this outdoor dining ban, so a lot happening at once.”

Gruel added that California was the only state that is requiring the shutdown of outdoor dining. 

“I posted something about — it’s OK to be able to support a reasonable opening, under safety precautions while simultaneously taking coronavirus seriously — and I’ve been saying that since day one,” he said. “It’s so crazy how this thing has just gotten polarized to the degree at one end of the spectrum, you’re either a COVID denier, or on the end of the spectrum you’re a communist.” 

Gruel admitted it was easy to “lob comments” over social media toward Gov. Newsom. But, he said, given the opportunity to speak one-on-one with the governor, he would ask Newsom to look at the situation from the perspective of the small business owner he claims to be. 

“Let’s look at this realistically,” Gruel explained. “As a small business owner I’ve got over 100 employees in Southern California, how am I supposed to tell them before the holidays that they’re all going to get laid off because our sales are going to drop so significantly because we’re banning outdoor dining? I would ask [Newsom] to look me in the face and tell me that outdoor dining is going to increase the risk of coronavirus — especially when the entertainment industry is exempt.”

Noymer, however, cautioned the philosophy that outdoor dining is innocent in the spread, and while there might not be hard data associated with it, mixing with others is simply a recipe for the virus to spread. 

“It’s hard to prove a negative. It’s hard to prove it’s not something. I think some restaurant owners have taken some liberties with the spirit of the order for outdoor dining. I’ve personally seen tents with patrons packed in. It’s technically outdoors, but it doesn’t look safe to me. I don’t think restaurants need to be shut down, because takeaway is totally fine,” Noymer said during a phone interview with Irvine Weekly. “But, it’s not obvious to me that restaurants aren’t playing a role in this — we’re reaching a crisis stage where we really need to take all reasonable precautions.”

Noymer added that more should be done at the national level to support small business owners who are struggling. 

“There needs to be help for people, and there’s no help coming, so people are just like, ‘Fuck this shit,’ — and you can print that.”

As far as enforcement goes, the Orange County Sheriff has taken a hands-off approach to the enforcement of any regional stay-at-home order violations.  

How The First Vaccines Will Be Distributed In California

Gov. Gavin Newsom announced that California secured more than 327,000 COVID-19 vaccines, with a possibility of acquiring 2.15 million doses by the end of December.

Newsom detailed the plans for the vaccine, saying they will be distributed in three phases, with doses being prioritized by groups such as critical healthcare workers and long-term care residents.

While this initial test run will be distributed to roughly 163,000 people, when considering the 327,000 vaccines must be given in two doses, Newsom said that there will be more coming to California in January, February and March. 

“There is light at the end of this tunnel. We are not in a permanent state — this is a temporary state,” Newsom said. “This is the third wave of a pandemic … with a vaccine that is now being distributed, not by one distributor, but by many different distributors … that we have been monitoring through our scientific safety review. Help is on the way.”

As of this writing, the FDA has not approved the acquired Pfizer vaccine, but Gov. Newsom said it is anticipated to be approved by Thursday, Dec. 10, with the first doses coming in by Tuesday, Dec. 15.

Noymer emphasized that the public should look forward to access to a vaccine within the coming months. However, referencing more of the unknowns, he added that only time would tell if the vaccine would stop transmission, or simply make the COVID-19 illness less severe.

“There’s a lot we don’t know yet about what the impact of that will be — we don’t know if the vaccine is a transmission blocking vaccine, or merely a vaccine that prevents you from getting sick — it might simply convert every illness into a asymptomatic case,” he said. “There’s a very real possibility that’s the case. There’s also a very good possibility that it does stop transmission, we just don’t know yet.” 

As for now, Noymer referenced a powerful anecdote and said regardless of the presence of a vaccine, our societal actions as a whole will determine the outcome, severity and duration of this ongoing pandemic.  

“The pandemic is us,” he said. “The root word ‘Demos’ in ‘pandemic’ is the Greek word for “people” and ‘pan’ means ‘all,’ so it’s something that happens, ‘upon all people’ — the pandemic is all of us, it’s all of society, acting as a unit. It’s not just the virus.” 

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